In this conversation with Vaughn Tan, you’ll discover how the most effective and innovative teams in the world come up with new ideas, new ways of doing things, and new ways of thinking by strategically working WITH uncertainty and using a few design principles.
Entrepreneurs and those involved with creating countless innovative solutions for climate restoration and ecosystem regeneration must deal with Risk and Uncertainty.
But let me ask you this…
Do you know the difference between Risk and Uncertainty?
Are they the same? Do you treat them the same?
If you don’t know the difference between Risk and Uncertainty and you are in charge of creating innovative solutions to address risky and Uncertain situations then you may end up using the wrong tools and end up wasting valuable time, money, and resources.
This is especially true when creating innovative solutions in the world of climate change, sustainability, and regeneration.
Innovative people and teams know how to embrace Uncertainty and use it to create innovative solutions. You can too, if you use the strategies we discuss in this interview with Vaughn Tan.
Do you know how to be Productive in Uncertainty?
What tools should you use for a Risk situation?
What tools should you use for an Uncertain situation?
We cover all this and much more in our conversation with Vaughn Tan.
Vaughn Tan is a consultant, author, toolmaker, and professor of strategy at University College London.
As it turns out innovation is very hard to do.
Vaughn gives people a new way to think about innovation and uncertainty.
For over a decade, Vaughn has helped businesses, not-for-profits, and government agencies understand uncertainty better and design themselves to flourish in uncertainty so that they can do things that are new and solve important problems.
Vaughn has a PhD in Organizational Behavior and Sociology from Harvard University and Harvard Business School.
He previously worked at Google in California on special projects (including spaceflight and big structured data) and consumer products (including Earth, Maps, and Streetview).
In a nutshell, Vaughn is trying to give people a new way to think about how to organize innovation management, how to organize people to come up with good problems to solve, and how to solve them well. If you can do that, you can produce something useful.
Links you can use to follow and connect with Vaughn Tan:
LinkedIn Profile - https://www.linkedin.com/in/vaughntan/
Website - https://vaughntan.org/
Substack Newsletter - https://uncertaintymindset.substack.com/
Farcaster - @vt
Bluesky - @vaughn.bsky.social
Twitter - @vaughn_tan
Instagram - @vaughn.tan
How misusing "Risk" and "Uncertainty" leads to bad decision making
(also contains graphics that clarify relationships between "risk", "uncertainty" and the four types of not-knowing):
https://vaughntan.org/overloading-and-appropriation
Diagram of not-knowings (risk, uncertainty, etc):
https://vaughntan.org/false-advertising
Generative uncertainty (includes explanation of why uncertainty is a feature of innovation, not a bug):
https://vaughntan.org/generative-uncertainty
Sneaky Strategies:
https://uncertaintymindset.substack.com/i/110030503/sneaky-strategies
Wicked Problems:
1) To innovate you need uncertainty.
Uncertainty is essential for innovation. Generative uncertainty is the kind of uncertainty that helps you generate new ideas, new ways of doing things, new ways of thinking.
The challenge is how do you design organizations around generative uncertainty.
2) Risk is NOT Uncertainty.
Uncertainty is fundamentally different from Risk.
If you don’t know the difference between Risk and Uncertainty and you are in charge of creating innovative solutions to address Risk situations and Uncertain situations, then you may end up using the wrong tools and end up wasting valuable time and effort.
3) Fear is the biggest obstacle that people deal with in innovation work.
Uncertainty triggers fear and a fight or flight reaction.
People really hate it when:
you don't know what you're doing
you don't know what success looks like
you have to tell your bosses or your subordinates that you don't know what you're doing
But in fact, with innovation work, Uncertainty is essential.
If you're doing innovation work, or you're leading it, or you're managing it, you must understand what parts of the problem you are uncertain about. You must talk about it with the people that you report to and the people that report to you.
And the biggest problem with doing that is that you're afraid.
4) Uncertainty work is innovation work. Uncertainty work is Climate Restoration work. Uncertainty work is Regenerate the ecosystem work.
5) In climate change work it is very unlikely that a single action will be the one dominant solution that will solve all of our problems.
It’s almost a certainty that it will be many, many, many actions, some big, most of them very small, all of them working simultaneously. Because that is how complex systems work. And this is how complex systems change.
6) Knowing how to distinguish different types of Uncertainty is vital.
7) We need to be able to talk about whether or not we value things like present enjoyment more than the enjoyment of future people that don’t exist yet. That is where not knowing value comes from.
Value requires us to be philosophical about whether or not outcomes are valuable or not.
We rarely ask ourselves this question: but in the context of climate change, we need to ask that because there is a trade off between economic activity and the economic vibrance of the present world that we live in and the sustainability of that kind of economic life activity into the future.
There will be a trade off between whether or not in the present day we get to fly around the world on holidays or living in big air conditioned houses. We have to trade that off against the fact that it is throwing CO2 into the air, it’s going to reduce some of the resources that will be available in the future.
8) The Problems and the Solutions in Innovation Work
The Problems
The problem for organizations trying to innovate is that they don't recognize and don't admit to themselves that innovation work is Uncertainty work. And Uncertainty work is inherently uncomfortable.
People are afraid of Uncertainty.
People hate Uncertainty.
They try to minimize it, avoid it, and not talk about it.
But the truth is: Uncertainty is a feature of innovation, not a bug.
Organizations don't recognize the benefits of Uncertainty because they have an evolved instinctive emotional discomfort with Uncertainty. They are afraid of doing the Uncertainty work because it involves failure.
But the truth is, you have to fail in order to succeed with innovation.
Failure and Uncertainty are necessary AND uncomfortable.
The biggest obstacles to innovation work are:
> Fear of failure
> Fear of uncertainty
> Fear of discomfort
Those are the problems or obstacles you have to overcome in innovation work.
The Solutions
What are some solutions?
There are no guaranteed solutions. But here are two suggestions which Vaughn has seen work.
First of all, people involved in innovation work need to become more comfortable with being uncomfortable when they're doing the kind of work that involves “Generative Uncertainty.”
Humans have an evolved an aversion to uncertainty.
Productive discomfort is the ability to be uncomfortable while doing something that is Generatively Uncertain.
Productive discomfort is a skill you can build. You can train yourself and your team to get over the aversion to Uncertainty.
The way to do that is to do the cognitive-emotional equivalent of “progressive loaded weight training.”
With progressive loading you start small with something you can do. And then you exceed your maximum limit a little bit. And then you rest and recover. You go up and up and up again, progressively. You're progressively loading yourself a little bit beyond your current capacity.
Progressive loading is a way of becoming better at dealing with the discomfort of facing and trying to create some Generative Uncertainty.
The idea is to initially expose yourself to very small, very manageable situations, which are designed to be Generatively Uncertain, designed to put you into a situation where you don't know about something or you don't know what's going to happen next. But that situation of Uncertainty is designed to help expose you to something which is a new experience that helps you grow and gives you a different perspective.
Doing things that make you feel a little bit uncomfortable and over time, doing things that become more and more uncomfortable result in you becoming very good in the end at doing very uncomfortable things.
Vaughn has built a tool called “idk” for that.
idk is a tool to help you develop and scale the ability to have an Uncertainty Mindset. It helps you build the ability to become productively uncomfortable.
The second solution is Sneaky Strategy
A Sneaky Strategy is basically a strategy that tries to hide what you're doing from the organizational antibodies (the gatekeepers) that will kill the idea, until you have validated it enough that those antibodies are no longer powerful enough to kill it.
Do you know the difference between Risk and Uncertainty?
Are they the same?
Do you treat them the same?
Do you know how to be Productive in Uncertainty?
Our interview with Vaughn Tan
covers all this and much more.
This episode is brought to you by Audible.
Audible: Audible is the leading producer and provider of audiobooks.
Finding the opportunity to read can be a challenge. Many people rely on audiobooks when they don’t have time to read. An audiobook allows you to listen to the latest bestseller, learn a new skill, and gain new insights, while commuting, cooking dinner, or cleaning up the house.
I recommend listening to the following books:
Never Split the Difference by Christopher Voss
The Art of Impossible: A Peak Performance Primer by Steven Kotler
Vaughn’s Origin Story
What is the difference between risk and uncertainty?
Actions, Outcomes, Not Knowing, and Climate Change
Different Types of Uncertainty: Actions, Outcomes, Causality, Value
What is the relationship between “Not Knowing”, “Risk”, and “Uncertainty”?
What is a Good and Bad side of Uncertainty?
What is Generative Uncertainty? (How to be productive in uncertainty?)
Three Design Principles for Innovation
Example of Clear Guardrails with Industrial Hemp
Mistakes that get in the way of creating a good environment for innovation
Overcoming Fear of Uncertainty
Recognize that uncertainty is not a bug, it's actually a feature.
Potential Solution for Fear of Uncertainty
Build the capacity to be productively uncomfortable. (Progressive Loading)
Sneaky Strategies and Wicked Problems
Trends to Look Out For in the Near Future
What Excites Vaughn These Days
#risk
#uncertainty
#actions
#outcomes
#notknowing
#climatechange
#causality
#value
#gooduncertainty
#baduncertainty
#generativeuncertainty
#productiveinuncertainty
#designprinciples
#innovation
#clearguardrails
#guardrails
#fearofuncertainty
#uncomfortable
#progressiveloading
#sneakystrategies
#wickedproblems
Peter Fiekowski - Eco Scale Radio interview
https://www.ecoscaleradio.com/001-peter-fiekowsky
Listen to this episode to find out how an astrophysicist became a climate activist.
How can two crowdfunded projects restore the climate and what can you do to help?
In this Eco Scale Radio episode, Peter Fiekowsky, an MIT-trained physicist, discusses his plans to restore the climate condition to a safe climate zone* by implementing two simple, powerful, practical, affordable, crowdfunded, and scientifically-grounded projects that work with nature.
Peter Fiekowsky, author of Climate Restoration: The Only Future That Will Sustain the Human Race (2022), is an MIT-educated physicist and Silicon Valley entrepreneur, social innovator, author, and philanthropist with 27 patents.
He has 30 years’ experience as a citizen lobbyist for poverty and climate issues, and over the past decade has been working to build the organizations required to ensure the survival and flourishing of humanity.
Fiekowsky’s mission in life is “to leave a world we’re proud of to our children.”
Rob De Laet - Eco Scale Radio interview
https://www.ecoscaleradio.com/002-rob-de-laet
After building a successful Eco-Tourism business, Rob sold the business and purchased a valley in a deforested portion of the Brazilian rainforest to focus on doing what he can to reverse Climate Change.
He lived in the rainforest for about 10 years focused on working with the Guajajara, an indigenous people in Brazil, to rewild, reforest, and regenerate that land. He also organized the planting of a million trees.
In this Eco Scale Radio episode, we discuss many things Rob is doing to cool the planet, including rebuilding coastal forests and the water ecosystem to naturally export heat into space.
The process is called a Biotic Pump. It’s similar to the way a heat pump pulls heat out of a house.
As member of the Eco Restoration Alliance, Rob is developing the Cooling Climate Chaos project together with Peter Bunyard and others, to reverse the climate crisis fast.
Rob is also working from James Lovelock's living planet perspective to restore the Earth’s metabolisms through the regeneration of the water cycles and biosphere.
Industrial Hemp - Eco Scale Radio podcast
https://www.ecoscaleradio.com/004-hempopportunity
In this episode we describe: The history of industrial hemp
(including Challenges and obstacles entrepreneurs have to deal with)
Croft Haus - Carbon capture, factory-crafted buildings.
Croft makes plant-based architecture that actively improves the environment.
The 100% bio-based materials in our building envelopes capture up to 60X more carbon than it takes to produce them. We lock these materials up in our super-insulated, factory-crafted wall and roof panels, and assemble them on your site.
A building made -quite literally- from thin air. More durable, more affordable, higher-performance, and healthier for you and the planet.
Sophie Howe - Future Generations Commissioner of Wales
Sophie Howe was the first Future Generations Commissioner for Wales from 2016 to January 2023.She was appointed as the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, a role created as part of the The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015
It set out seven well-being goals: i) a prosperous Wales, ii) a resilient Wales, iii) a healthier Wales, iv) a more equal Wales, v) a Wales of cohesive communities, vi) a Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language and vii) a globally responsible Wales.
A 'sustainable development principle' comprising five aspects is intended to assist in the delivery of the Act's goals and actions; i) long-term thinking, ii) prevention, iii) integration, iv) collaboration and v) involvement.
The remit is a statutory obligation as “the guardian of the interests of future generations in Wales” to provide guidance and advice to the government and public bodies in Wales when they make decisions so that they think about effects on people in the future as well as now.
Although formal powers are limited, the power to require justifications for decisions can influence policy. She promotes public involvement, preventative action and cross-government collaboration to improve decision making.
Howe advised the Welsh government against building a bypass around Newport linked to the M4 motorway because it would result in financial debt for the future as well as destroy local biodiversity.
Source: Wikipedia
Risk is a situation where you don’t know what is going to happen, but you know:
all the possible actions you can take
all the possible outcomes that could result
the causal connections - the probability if you take any given action that any given outcome will occur
When you are in a situation of risk, you can use a tool such as a Cost Benefit Analysis because you know what actions to take and how much they will cost. You know what outcomes will result. You know what benefits that will provide. You can do the calculations.
In uncertainty you also don’t know what is going to happen next, but you may not know what actions are possible, you may not know what outcomes are possible, you almost certainly don’t know the exact causalities between the actions that you know of and the outcomes that you know of. You also don’t know the value of particular outcomes.
Not knowing about actions, outcomes, causations, or values, any one of those four forms of not knowing, instantly makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to use our traditional tools like Cost Benefit Analysis, or Expected Value Analysis to think about how we should act when we don’t know what’s going to happen next.
Almost every big problem of not knowing that we face with climate change, adaptation, restoration, and regeneration is NOT primarily a risk problem.
It’s primarily uncertainty. We don’t know all the actions we can take to slow down or reverse climate change. We don’t know the possible outcomes that will result if we do those actions or if we don’t do those actions.
We don’t know the causation between the actions that we take and the outcomes that might occur with any kind of detail or certainty.
And people around the world value outcomes differently, in terms of climate change and the actions we need to take and the outcomes the will produce.
So the biggest takeaway is: Are you facing a situation of risk or uncertainty? If you are facing a situation of risk, use risk methods.
But if you are facing a situation of true uncertainty do something different. Try to figure out what kind of uncertainty you are facing. Don’t just knee jerk react by using risk methods of dealing with it.
Try to understand am I facing not knowing about actions, am I facing now knowing about outcomes, am I facing not knowing about causation, am I facing not knowing about value?
Each one of those types of not knowing call for different ways of dealing with them.
For more information, read Vaughn's article How misusing "Risk" and "Uncertainty" leads to bad decision making (also contains graphics that clarify relationships between "risk", "uncertainty" and the 4 types of not-knowing)
Vaughn uses the Term “Not Knowing” because people tend to use the term “Risk” and “Uncertainty” interchangeably. As you can tell from our interview with Vaughn Risk and Uncertainty are NOT the same. But where does Not Knowing fit in?
So let’s get clear on the differences between Not Knowing, Risk, and Uncertainty.
If you are completely certain about something, that is NOT Not Knowing.
Not Knowing
If you are NOT completely certain about something, you are in the world of Not Knowing.
Not Knowing is a situation where we don’t know what is going to happen next or how it is going to happen.
Risk Not Knowing
Inside that world of Not Knowing, when you are NOT certain about something, but you know everything there is about what you don’t know, youknow all the actions, all the outcomes, all the causations, that’s the world of Risk Not Knowing.
Uncertainty Not Knowing
If you are NOT in the Risk part of Not Knowing, you are in Uncertainty Not Knowing.
Inside Uncertainty there are at least four types of Not Knowing.
not knowing about possible actions.
not knowing about possible outcomes.
not knowing about possible causations.
not knowing about possible values.
Why Does This Matter?
If you are not clear about the types of Not Knowing that you face, then you may end up using the wrong tools and end up wasting valuable time, money, and resources.
For Risk Not Knowing we have decades worth of tools for understanding how to analyze a situation and how to respond to it. Most of them come down to things like Game Theory, Cost Benefit Analysis, and Expected Value Analysis. We have tons of research on that.
But most of the big problems we are facing today are NOT Risk Not Knowing, they are Uncertainty Not Knowing.
We don’t have research or insight that is systematic about the kinds of Not Knowing that are NOT Risk Not Knowing.
That is why Vaughn is very specific when naming these situations.
Vaughn wants to know more about all these different types of Not Knowing especially what we can do about each type.
To view a detailed diagram of not-knowings (risk, uncertainty, etc) read this article:
We often think of uncertainty in a kind of instinctive emotional knee jerk reaction sort of way - as if it is something that is bad and that we should avoid it.
We have evolved a physiological response to Uncertainty. It triggers in us the fight or flight reaction. Your heart rate goes up. Your gut feels kind of churny. You're stressed. This is an evolved and completely understandable reaction.
But nowadays, that reaction to Uncertainty is not helpful.
Because most of the problems that we face these days like innovation problems, climate change innovation problems, and regeneration problemse are Uncertainty situations that we need to face.
But we also need to distinguish between Good and Bad Uncertainty.
Bad Uncertainty is Uncertainty that is unnecessary.
And Good Uncertainty is necessary, and helps you make good new stuff.
In the world of innovation and specifically innovation for climate change we desperately need more Good Uncertainty. We need people to embrace Uncertainty, not just instinctively run away from it or pretend it doesn't exist.
When we are trying to make something new, Good Uncertainty requires you to understand that actions are not fully known, outcomes aren't fully known, value isn't fully known, causation isn't fully known.
And your response is “Let's figure it out.”
That is the Good Uncertainty.
Vaughn’s first book “Uncertainty Mindset” represents almost 10 years of trying to understand how teams that come up with new ideas use Uncertainty strategically.
They don’t try to get rid of Uncertainty. They don’t try and deny that Uncertainty exists. They know that Uncertainty is there.
And they bring Uncertainty into how they work.
This is an example of Good Uncertainty.
idk is a tool to help you develop and scale the ability to have an Uncertainty Mindset.
The idea behind this tool is to initially expose you to very small, very manageable situations, which are designed to be Generatively Uncertain.
They are designed to put you into a situation where you don't know about something or you don't know what's going to happen next.
But that situation of Uncertainty is designed to help expose you to something which is a new experience that may be cool, it may be interesting, it may help you grow, and/or it may give you a different perspective.
The idea for this tool emerged from looking at teams of people that were very good at innovating. It turns out, this is what they were doing all the time.
They were always doing things that made them a little bit uncomfortable. And over time, the things that they were doing became more and more uncomfortable. And at the end, they were always very good at doing very uncomfortable things.
If you are trying to introduce some innovation into an organization that resists doing anything which is not certain, try using a Sneaky Strategy.
A Sneaky Strategy is basically a strategy that tries to hide what you're doing from the organizational antibodies (the gatekeepers) that will kill the idea, until you have validated it enough that those antibodies are no longer powerful enough to kill it.
It’s about doing very small experiments that are well designed.
It’s about building the smallest, cheapest, fastest, low stakes experiments for doing new things. They are small enough that they initially do not trigger a gatekeeper reflex. They help you learn more about what it is you're experimenting on. And they help you explain to people why a bigger experiment makes sense.
A Sneaky Strategy is a way of leveraging an idea into a small action that can be leveraged into a proof of concept for a future larger experiment.
For more information on Sneaky Strategies read this article:
https://uncertaintymindset.substack.com/i/110030503/sneaky-strategies
A Wicked Problem is a complicated idea, but in general, it's usually applied to planning and policy situations.
According to Wikipedia, a Wicked Problem is a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize.
“Wicked” does not means that it's evil in some way, but that it is hard to solve.
Wicked Problems cannot be definitively formulated.
They have no rule that tells you that you've got the solution, you can stop.
The solutions tend not to be binary, true or false, but they're better or they're worse.
There's no immediate Ultimate test.
Almost every one of the characteristics of Wicked Problems apply to climate change.
By definition, the problems that are wicked don't have existing solutions that everyone has already tried before.
Innovation is essential for Wicked Problems. Which means, innovation is essential for solving climate change or trying to at least slow it down.
For more information on Wicked Problems read this article
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